Publications

Authors: Schropp, Theresa, Jan Oliver Schwarz und Fabian Buder

Link: https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.178

Abstract:

Our study emphasizes the evolving nature and increasing relevance of corporate foresight (CF) in a volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous world. This research, therefore, contributes to the foresight literature, concerned with the antecedents and motivators of CF as it investigates how external events that are characterized by great uncertainty influence the CF practice of large companies. On the example of the COVID-19 pandemic and based on a study of 25 interviews, this empirical research reveals that such events provoke an intensified engagement with the future within companies as implied by a greater resource commitment and interest in foresight. Thereby, CF and especially the development of multiple future scenarios, are considered helpful in countering uncertainty and facilitating responsiveness.

Authors: Konstantinos Konstantinidis, Quentin Ladetto, Jan Oliver Schwarz, Theresa Schropp, Philipp Schweiger

Link: https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.178

Abstract:

In an era marked by rapid technological advancements and increasing global complexity, foresight and preparedness are vital for organizations to navigate uncertain futures effectively. This report, produced collaboratively by armasuisse Science and Technology and the Bavarian Foresight Institute, explores eleven key emerging technological trends—including data science, AI, immersive technologies, quantum technologies, and more—and their interactions with fourteen global megatrends, such as climate change, urbanization, and shifting health paradigms.

By leveraging a structured framework, the report provides detailed analyses of each trend and megatrend, identifying potential impacts, challenges, and opportunities. A novel "Scenario Game" is introduced as an interactive tool for leaders to engage with these insights, enabling strategic exploration of future scenarios and fostering foresight-thinking.

This comprehensive resource serves as a valuable guide for decision-makers across industries, offering both a deep understanding of technological trajectories and a practical methodology for addressing the complex interplay of global trends shaping the future.

Authors:  Felix von Held, Jan Oliver Schwarz

Abstract:

This book introduces a fresh perspective on future-focused leadership, blending adaptability with resilience to offer guidance during uncertain times. It goes beyond explaining the “what” of foresight and strategy by embedding them within a value-driven culture, the “how.” Drawing from extensive research and practical experience, Robust Leadership equips leaders with actionable exercises designed to refine and strengthen their leadership capabilities.

Authors: Koebe, Philipp, Tobias Schillings und Jan Oliver Schwarz

Link:https://doi.org/10.6531/JFS.202312_28(2).0005

Abstract:

Population health is a crucial determinant of human prosperity and well-being. Poor health can lead to reduced productivity, poverty, and premature death, with the COVID-19 pandemic underscoring the vulnerability of population health on a global scale. Self-learning algorithms have the potential to improve population health in a sustainable way and bring a paradigm shift to healthcare. We utilize intuitive logic to generate future scenarios in order to address the research question. These scenarios are categorized as either health-promoting or health-damaging, and superintelligence is considered either dominating or nondominating. We provide strategic implications for each scenario, which can guide policy action in dealing with superintelligence.

Authors: Krüger, Clemens, Laura Bechthold und Reinhard Prügl

Link:https://doi.org/10.4337/9781800889248.00026

Abstract:

Entrepreneurs face seemingly conflicting goals in a rapidly changing and complex world. Especially family businesses are prone to such paradoxical tensions due to the interconnectedness of the family and the firm. Despite their relevance in entrepreneurial business practice, current research lacks methods to examine individual behavior in the management of paradoxes. We introduce serious games as a method capable of simulating context-rich and immersive environments to understand entrepreneurial decision-making in paradoxical situations. In an exploratory study, we quantitatively and qualitatively analyzed the behavior of 181 players in a self-programmed serious game with a focus on decision-making in a family firm. With this initial implementation of a serious game, we show the method's potential for advancing (family) entrepreneurship research and behavioral management theories. We propose a new research agenda that harnesses context-rich games for behavioral analyses, entrepreneurship education, and the development of coping strategies for the management of paradoxes.

Authors: Schönmann, Alexander, Lukas Lodes und Alexander Schiendorfer

Link: https://doi.org/10.17619/UNIPB/1-1821

Abstract:

The importance of dealing with technology forecasts and forward studies in terms of content for a sound research and innovation policy has increased in view of the increasing complexity of innovation processes over the last few years. National, cross-thematic technology projections and forward studies croffit insights into the assessments and expectations of governments regarding emerging (technology) development and, in some cases, into strategic planning in the respective national context.

Knowledge of thematic priorities in international forward studies can help German decision-makers identify important issues for science and technology decisions. Thus, own science and technology strategies can be compared with those of other countries and strengths, weaknesses and potential for optimization can be identified. It is also possible to better assess which investments in research and development can bring great benefits to society and the economy.

This article provides a statistical overview of international technology forecasts and future studies in the 2016-2022 observation period and evaluates thematically. The focus is on identifying key topics of individual countries and regions of the world, which are statistically identified using so-called national thematic fingerprints.

The aim is a comparative overview of the thematic focuses of currently important technology perspectives from abroad, which meets the need of German decision-makers for substantial evaluations of international technology forecasts.

Author: Schönhofer, Gerhardt

Link: https://sammlung.volkskundemuseum.at/bibliothek/content/zoom/171462

Authors: Schwarz, Jan Oliver, Bernhard Wach und René Rohrbeck

Link:doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2023.103137

Abstract:

Many organizations use design thinking (DT) to develop future products and services. DT is often used for its ability to serve as a common “language” and platform to enable market-facing departments and technology-oriented units to cocreate innovations. DT has been shown to be a powerful tool for helping to identify and connect the needs of average customers (personas) with technical solutions that form the basis for winning products. In this paper, we investigate the extent to which DT professionals already use strategic foresight (SF) methods that anticipate future customer needs and highlight emerging technologies to expand classical DT and anchor their projects in the future. Using survey data on 302 DT projects, we report on the extent to which SF methods are used in DT projects, the overriding types of SF methods in DT projects, and their impact on project success.

Authors: Schönhofer, Gerhardt

Link:https://www.transcript-verlag.de/978-3-8376-6061-6/ermaechtigung-durch-sichtbarkeit/

Abstract:

In the context of participatory film projects for young people with refugee experience, visibility is often equated with empowerment. Gerhard Schönhofer questions this logic by ethnographically describing processes of making visible, as they occur in workshop formats. The proximity to the research field not only creates a precise picture of the self-image, but also of the demands of the project managers, who are sometimes in tension with the motivations of the participating young people.

Authors: Schwarz, Jan Oliver und Bernhard Wach

Link:https://doi.org/10.1080/14606925.2021.2005879

Abstract:

It has been argued that cultural products (e.g., novels or movies) can be used to develop foresight or prototypes. The rationale is that cultural products not only reflect changes in the business environment but also contribute to these changes by diffusion. Therefore, cultural products are arguably valuable. However, compared to other design thinking tools such as ethnographic research, interviews or focus groups, cultural products are less prevalent. This article, which is based on an empirical study of 302 design thinkers from 2018, explores the extent to which cultural products are used in design thinking projects. Despite a lower prevalence than other design thinking tools, we find support that cultural products are positively related to the success of design thinking projects. We conclude that although cultural products are used less than other approaches, they have a significant impact. We therefore emphasize the future potential of using cultural products in design thinking.