Prof. Dr. Jan Oliver Schwarz

+49 841 9348-3511

JanOliver.Schwarz@thi.de

Room: I202

Subject Area: Strategic Foresight and Trend Analysis

Research

Strategic Foresight
Trends and weak singals
Scenario Planning and Business Wargaming
Design Thinking
Strategy and cultural products / Science-Fiction

Vita

Professional Career

since WiSe 2021: Professor of Strategic Foresight and Trend Analysis an der THI
2019 - 2021: Professor of Strategic Management and Leadership, ESB Business School, Reutlingen University
2015- 2019: Professor General Management, Hochschule Fresenius University of Applied Sciences, Munich, Design Department
2015 - 2016: Decision Strategies International, Inc., London & Munich, Associate Principal
2010 - 2015: Allianz SE, Munich, Strategy Consultant

Educational Background

Universität der Künste Berlin, PhD, Management, Foresight
Stellenbosch Business School, MPhil, Futures Studies
Universität Witten/Herdecke, Dipl. Oec., Management

Publications

2024

Schropp, Theresa, Jan Oliver Schwarz und Fabian Buder, 2024. Corporate foresight in light of the COVID‐19 pandemic—The crisis as a driver? Futures & Foresight Science, e178. ISSN 2573-5152. Verfügbar unter: https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.178

2023

Koebe, Philipp, Tobias Schillings und Jan Oliver Schwarz, 2023. How Superintelligence Affects Human Health: A Scenario Analysis. Journal of Futures Studies, 28(2), S. 79-99. ISSN 1027-6084. Verfügbar unter: https://doi.org/10.6531/JFS.202312_28(2).0005

Schwarz, Jan Oliver, Bernhard Wach und René Rohrbeck, 2023. How to anchor design thinking in the future: Empirical evidence on the usage of strategic foresight in design thinking projects. Futures, 2023(149), 103137. ISSN 1873-6378. Verfügbar unter: doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2023.103137

Schwarz, Jan Oliver, 2023. Strategic Foresight: An Introductory Guide to Practice. London: Routledge. ISBN 9781003302735. Verfügbar unter: https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003302735

2022

Schwarz, Jan Oliver und Bernhard Wach, 2022. The usage of cultural products in design thinking: an assessment of an underestimated approach. The Design Journal, 25(1), S. 4-24. ISSN 1460-6925. Verfügbar unter: https://doi.org/10.1080/14606925.2021.2005879

2021

Oriesek, Daniel F. und Jan Oliver Schwarz, 2021. Winning the Uncertainty Game: Turning Strategic Intent into Results with Wargaming. London ; New York: Routledge. ISBN 978-0-367-85359-4. Verfügbar unter: https://doi.org/10.4324/9780367853594

Oriesek, Daniel F. und Jan Oliver Schwarz, 2021. Winning the Uncertainty Game: Turning Strategic Intent into Results with Wargaming. PM World Journal, X(VIII, August). ISSN 2330-4480. Verfügbar unter: https://pmworldlibrary.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/pmwj108-Aug2021-Oriesek-Schwarz-winning-the-uncertainty-game.pdf

Schwarz, Jan Oliver, 2021. From alternative pictures of the future to an organizational intervention: a commentary on Rowland and Spaniol. Futures & Foresight Science, 4(1), e105. ISSN 2573-5152. Verfügbar unter: https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.105

2020

Eller, Eric, Rupert Hofmann und Jan Oliver Schwarz, 2020. The Customer Foresight Territory. Marketing Review St Gallen, 2020(3), S. 888-895. Verfügbar unter: https://imc.unisg.ch/shop/marketing-review-st-gallen-3-2020-customer-foresight/

Schwarz, Jan Oliver, René Rohrbeck und Bernhard Wach, 2020. Corporate foresight as a microfoundation of dynamic capabilities. Futures & Foresight Science, 2(2). ISSN 2573-5152. Verfügbar unter: https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.28

Schwarz, Jan Oliver, 2020. Revisiting Scenario Planning and Business Wargaming from an Open Strategy Perspective. World Futures Review, 12(3), S. 291-303. ISSN 2169-2793. Verfügbar unter: https://doi.org/10.1177/1946756720953182

2019

Gordon, Adam, René Rohrbeck und Jan Oliver Schwarz, 2019. Escaping the ‘Faster Horses’ Trap: Bridging Strategic Foresight and Design-Based Innovation. Technology Innovation Management Review, 9(8), S. 30-42. ISSN 1927-0321. Verfügbar unter: https://doi.org/10.22215/timreview/1259

Schwarz, Jan Oliver, Camelia Ram und René Rohrbeck, 2019. Combining scenario planning and business wargaming to better anticipate future competitive dynamics. Futures, 105, S. 133-142. ISSN 1873-6378. Verfügbar unter: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2018.10.001

2016

Müller, Adrian W. und Jan Oliver Schwarz, 2016. Assessing the functions and dimensions of visualizations in foresight. Foresight, 18(1), S. 76-90. ISSN 1463-6689. Verfügbar unter: https://doi.org/10.1108/FS-04-2014-0027

2014

Schwarz, Jan Oliver, 2014. The ‘Narrative Turn’ in developing foresight: Assessing how cultural products can assist organisations in detecting trends. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2015(90, Part B), S. 510-513. ISSN 0040-1625. Verfügbar unter: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2014.02.024

2013

Rohrbeck, René und Jan Oliver Schwarz, 2013. The value contribution of strategic foresight: Insights from an empirical study of large European companies. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 80(8), S. 1593-1606. ISSN 0040-1625. Verfügbar unter: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.01.004

Schwarz, Jan Oliver und Franz Liebl, 2013. Cultural products and their implications for business models: Why science fiction needs socio-cultural fiction. Futures, 2013(50), S. 66-73. ISSN 0016-3287. Verfügbar unter: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2013.03.006

Schwarz, Jan Oliver, Rixa Kroehl und Heiko A. von der Gracht, 2013. Novels and novelty in trend research — Using novels to perceive weak signals and transfer frames of reference. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2014(84), S. 66-73. ISSN 1873-5509. Verfügbar unter: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.007

von Groddeck, Victoria und Jan Oliver Schwarz, 2013. Perceiving megatrends as empty signifiers: A discourse-theoretical interpretation of trend management. Futures, 2013(47), S. 28-37. ISSN 0016-3287. Verfügbar unter: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2013.01.004

2011

Schwarz, Jan Oliver, 2011. Ex ante strategy evaluation: the case for business wargaming. Business Strategy Series, 12(3), S. 122-135. ISSN 1751-5637. Verfügbar unter: https://doi.org/10.1108/17515631111130095

2009

Liebl, Franz und Jan Oliver Schwarz, 2009. Normality of the future: Trend diagnosis for strategic foresight. Futures, 42(4), S. 313-327. ISSN 0016-3287. Verfügbar unter: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2009.11.017

Oriesek, Daniel F. und Jan Oliver Schwarz, 2009. Business Wargaming: Unternehmenswert schaffen und schützen. Wiesbaden: Gabler. ISBN 978-3-8349-1879-6. Verfügbar unter: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-8349-8288-9

2007

Schwarz, Jan Oliver, 2007. Assessing the future of futures studies in management. Futures, 40(3), S. 237-246. ISSN 0016-3287. Verfügbar unter: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2007.08.018

2005

Schwarz, Jan Oliver, 2005. Pitfalls in implementing a strategic early warning system. Foresight, 7(4), S. 22-30. ISSN 1463-6689. Verfügbar unter: https://doi.org/10.1108/14636680510611813

Links to online profiles

ResearchGate: Prof. Dr. Jan Oliver Schwarz

LinkedIN: Prof. Dr. Jan Oliver Schwarz

Videos

Interview in der Sendung "Nachgefragt" (TV Ingolstadt)

Meet the Profs: Interview mit Prof. Dr. Ing. Alexander Schönmann und Prof. Dr. Jan Oliver Schwarz (YouTube)

"Zukunft oder Zukünfte?" innerhalb der Vortragsreihe Nachhaltiges modernes Leben (Youtube)

Corporate foresight as a microfoundation of dynamic capabilities. Explained by Jan Oliver Schwarz (Youtube)

Combining Values and Scenarios in Enabling an Organization to Transform (WFSF 24th World Conference, Berlin)

Podcasts

#108 Foresight in Unternehmen - Podcast "Im Hier und Morgen & Kai for Future #KFF" von Zukunftsforscher Kai Gondlach

#13 Über die Bedeutung von Science-Fiction für die Gestaltung unserer Zukunft - R+V-Zukunftspodcast

#58 Ausbildung von Innovation- & Foresightmanager:innen - Podcast TRENDONE GmbH

Publications

2025

SCHWARZ, Jan Oliver, Theresa Constanze SCHROPP, Bernhard WACH und Fabian BUDER, 2025. Do internal foresight activities add value to decision-making? Insights from an empirical investigation. Futures, 2025(166), 103548. ISSN 0016-3287. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2025.103548

PACE, Lisa A., Carmen BRUNO und Jan Oliver SCHWARZ, 2025. Personas in scenario building: Integrating human-centred design methods in foresight. Futures, 2025(166), 103539. ISSN 1873-6378. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2025.103539

ZEHNDER, Elena und Jan Oliver SCHWARZ, 2025. The interplay of future making and foresight: Insights from a family business case study. Futures, 2025(170), 103608. ISSN 1873-6378. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2025.103608

2024

WACH, Bernhard, Jan Oliver SCHWARZ und Felix VON HELD, 2024. Corporate foresight for the benefit of corporates' innovation climate. Futures & Foresight Science, 7(1), e195. ISSN 2573-5152. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.195

SCHROPP, Theresa Constanze, Jan Oliver SCHWARZ und Fabian BUDER, 2024. Corporate foresight in light of the COVID‐19 pandemic—The crisis as a driver?. Futures & Foresight Science, 6(2), e178. ISSN 2573-5152. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.178

VON HELD, Felix und Jan Oliver SCHWARZ, 2024. Robust Leadership: Sicheres Führen in unsicheren Zeiten. Frankfurt am Main: Frankfurter Allegmeine Buch. ISBN 978-3-96251-205-7.

KÖBE, Philipp und Jan Oliver SCHWARZ, 2024. Superintelligenzen in der Technologie-gestützten Gesundheitsversorgung: Szenarien zu den Chancen und Risiken für Mensch und Gesundheit. In: PFANNSTIEL, Mario A., Editors Technologien und Technologiemanagement im Gesundheitswesen: Potenziale nutzen, Lösungen entwickeln, Ziele erreichen. Wiesbaden: Springer Gabler, Page 679-698. ISBN 978-3-658-43860-9. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-43860-9_35

DÖRR, Ulrike-Sabine, Gerhard SCHÖNHOFER und Jan Oliver SCHWARZ, 2024. The state of foresight in small and medium enterprises: literature review and research agenda. European Journal of Futures Research, 12(1), 16. ISSN 2195-2248. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1186/s40309-024-00237-1

2023

KOEBE, Philipp, Tobias SCHILLINGS und Jan Oliver SCHWARZ, 2023. How Superintelligence Affects Human Health: A Scenario Analysis. Journal of Futures Studies, 28(2), 79-99. ISSN 1027-6084. Available at: https://doi.org/10.6531/JFS.202312_28(2).0005

SCHWARZ, Jan Oliver, Bernhard WACH und René ROHRBECK, 2023. How to anchor design thinking in the future: Empirical evidence on the usage of strategic foresight in design thinking projects. Futures, 2023, 103137. ISSN 1873-6378. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2023.103137

SCHWARZ, Jan Oliver, Bernhard WACH und René ROHRBECK, 2023. How to anchor design thinking in the future: Empirical evidence on the usage of strategic foresight in design thinking projects. Futures, 2023(149), 103137. ISSN 1873-6378. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2023.103137

SCHWARZ, Jan Oliver, 2023. Strategic Foresight: An Introductory Guide to Practice. London: Routledge. ISBN 9781003302735. Available at: https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003302735

2022

SCHWARZ, Jan Oliver und Bernhard WACH, 2022. The usage of cultural products in design thinking: An assessment of an underestimated approach. The Design Journal, 25(1), 4-24. ISSN 1460-6925. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1080/14606925.2021.2005879

2021

SCHWARZ, Jan Oliver, 2021. From alternative pictures of the future to an organizational intervention: A commentary on Rowland and Spaniol. Futures & Foresight Science, 4(1), e105. ISSN 2573-5152. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.105

ORIESEK, Daniel F. und Jan Oliver SCHWARZ, 2021. Winning the Uncertainty Game: Turning Strategic Intent into Results with Wargaming. London ; New York: Routledge. ISBN 978-0-367-85359-4. Available at: https://doi.org/10.4324/9780367853594

ORIESEK, Daniel F. und Jan Oliver SCHWARZ, 2021. Winning the Uncertainty Game: Turning Strategic Intent into Results with Wargaming. PM World Journal, X. ISSN 2330-4480. Available at: https://pmworldlibrary.net/pmworld-journal-archives/

2020

SCHWARZ, Jan Oliver, 2020. Revisiting Scenario Planning and Business Wargaming from an Open Strategy Perspective. World Futures Review, 12(3), 291-303. ISSN 2169-2793. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1177/1946756720953182

ELLER, Eric, Rupert HOFMANN und Jan Oliver SCHWARZ, 2020. The Customer Foresight Territory. Marketing Review St Gallen, 2020(3), 888-895. Available at: https://imc.unisg.ch/shop/marketing-review-st-gallen-3-2020-customer-foresight/

2019

SCHWARZ, Jan Oliver, Camelia RAM und René ROHRBECK, 2019. Combining scenario planning and business wargaming to better anticipate future competitive dynamics. Futures, 105, 133-142. ISSN 1873-6378. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2018.10.001

SCHWARZ, Jan Oliver, René ROHRBECK und Bernhard WACH, 2019. Corporate foresight as a microfoundation of dynamic capabilities. Futures & Foresight Science, 2(2), e28. ISSN 2573-5152. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.28

GORDON, Adam, René ROHRBECK und Jan Oliver SCHWARZ, 2019. Escaping the ‘Faster Horses’ Trap: Bridging Strategic Foresight and Design-Based Innovation. Technology Innovation Management Review, 9(8), 30-42. ISSN 1927-0321. Available at: https://doi.org/10.22215/timreview/1259

2016

MÜLLER, Adrian W. und Jan Oliver SCHWARZ, 2016. Assessing the functions and dimensions of visualizations in foresight. Foresight, 18(1), 76-90. ISSN 1463-6689. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1108/FS-04-2014-0027

2014

SCHWARZ, Jan Oliver, 2014. The ‘Narrative Turn’ in developing foresight: Assessing how cultural products can assist organisations in detecting trends. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2015(90), 510-513. ISSN 0040-1625. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2014.02.024

2013

SCHWARZ, Jan Oliver und Franz LIEBL, 2013. Cultural products and their implications for business models: Why science fiction needs socio-cultural fiction. Futures, 2013(50), 66-73. ISSN 0016-3287. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2013.03.006

SCHWARZ, Jan Oliver, Rixa KROEHL und Heiko A. VON DER GRACHT, 2013. Novels and novelty in trend research — Using novels to perceive weak signals and transfer frames of reference. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2014(84), 66-73. ISSN 1873-5509. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.007

VON GRODDECK, Victoria und Jan Oliver SCHWARZ, 2013. Perceiving megatrends as empty signifiers: A discourse-theoretical interpretation of trend management. Futures, 2013(47), 28-37. ISSN 0016-3287. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2013.01.004

ROHRBECK, René und Jan Oliver SCHWARZ, 2013. The value contribution of strategic foresight: Insights from an empirical study of large European companies. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 80(8), 1593-1606. ISSN 0040-1625. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.01.004

2011

SCHWARZ, Jan Oliver, 2011. Ex ante strategy evaluation: the case for business wargaming. Business Strategy Series, 12(3), 122-135. ISSN 1751-5637. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1108/17515631111130095

2009

ORIESEK, Daniel F. und Jan Oliver SCHWARZ, 2009. Business Wargaming: Unternehmenswert schaffen und schützen. Wiesbaden: Gabler. ISBN 978-3-8349-1879-6. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-8349-8288-9

LIEBL, Franz und Jan Oliver SCHWARZ, 2009. Normality of the future: Trend diagnosis for strategic foresight. Futures, 42(4), 313-327. ISSN 0016-3287. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2009.11.017

2007

SCHWARZ, Jan Oliver, 2007. Assessing the future of futures studies in management. Futures, 40(3), 237-246. ISSN 0016-3287. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2007.08.018

2005

SCHWARZ, Jan Oliver, 2005. Pitfalls in implementing a strategic early warning system. Foresight, 7(4), 22-30. ISSN 1463-6689. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1108/14636680510611813