Upper Bavaria 2047: IHK explores future scenarios with the help of the Bavarian Foresight Institute

How could Upper Bavaria develop in the coming decades? Around 25 members of the Chamber of Industry and Commerce's "Industry and Innovation" expert committee addressed this question at a workshop in Munich. The basis was the Scenario Game, an interactive workshop format developed by the Bavarian Foresight Institute at the Technische Hochschule Ingolstadt (THI) together with the Swiss Armed Forces Procurement Office ArmaSuisse.

Collecting ideas for the future: During the Scenario Game, participants used Post-its to discuss possible developments for Upper Bavaria up to the year 2047 (Photo: © Goran Gajanin – DAS KRAFTWERK).

The event kicked off with a keynote speech by Professor Jan Oliver Schwarz, who explained the importance of strategic foresight for companies and regions. "The future cannot be predicted, but possible developments can be systematically thought through," explained Schwarz. "With the Scenario Game, we are creating a format in which companies can jointly develop different visions of the future and review their strategic assumptions."

The workshop focussed on the question of what the economy and society in Upper Bavaria could look like in 2047. The participants developed various scenarios in groups based on current technology and megatrends. Dr Gerhard Schönhofer assisted with the implementation of the workshop. He is also the contact person for the Future Navigator developed at the Bavarian Foresight Institute, which provides free foresight tools for SMEs at zukunftsnavigator.info, including the aforementioned scenario game. The Future Navigator was developed as part of the knowledge transfer project "Mensch in Bewegung", funded by the Federal Ministry of Research, Technology and Space and its "Innovative University" funding programme.

The visions of the future developed in the workshop ranged from stable further development to far-reaching technological and economic changes. However, they all had one central idea in common: in all scenarios, people were at the centre of future value creation. The participants also discussed new business models and challenges such as demographic change.

Despite differing perspectives, the participants agreed that Upper Bavaria is well placed to successfully shape future transformation processes thanks to its innovative strength, its companies and ongoing immigration.

Interest in the workshop format was correspondingly high. Several participants signalled their interest in using the scenario game in their own company contexts in the future. For the Bavarian Foresight Institute, this shows the growing need for practical methods of strategic future work.

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